NEWS

LED industry pattern changes, packaging capacity accelerates to China

2019-09-05 13:54

LED industry regional pattern change

After experiencing rapid growth in previous years, the global LED industry is gradually entering the “plateau period”, and the growth rate is slowing down. Among them, the market share of Chinese manufacturers continues to rise and is playing an increasingly important role.

According to statistics from LEDinside, in the field of upstream LED chips, the size of China's market in 2016 reached RMB 13.9 billion, up 9% year-on-year, and the yield of chip countries rose to 76%. The market share of the top ten manufacturers rose to 77%. In the packaging field, the market size reached RMB 58.9 billion in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the national product rate rose to 67%. The market share of the top ten manufacturers rose to 43%.

LEDinside analyst Yu Bin said that the current technology gap between LED companies in the two sides is shrinking, and mainland manufacturers have obvious advantages in cost performance. From the current point of view, the manufacturers of expansion are mainly concentrated in the mainland, and it is predicted that the localization rate of LEDs will continue to increase in the future.

In addition to the upstream LED chip link, the industry is also entering a period of gradual development in the LED packaging segment. The industry predicts that the compound growth rate will be only about 6% from 2015 to 2020, which is far less than the previous years.

“Although the industry growth rate has slowed significantly, the industrial regional pattern is also changing, and global packaging capacity is accelerating the transfer to China.” Yu Bin said that some major international companies, such as Philips and Samsung, are increasing their production capacity in China's foundry factories.

Due to cost pressure, many domestic LED companies are also being transferred from the Pearl River Delta to other regions. For example, some manufacturers such as Mulinsen have begun to try to transfer factories to Jiangxi and Jiangsu. In addition, as the industrial structure has become clearer, industry giants have already emerged, and signs of the transformation of some small and medium-sized enterprises into other industries are beginning to emerge.

Another research institute, DIGITIMES, also pointed out recently that in view of the rapid growth in demand for LED products such as large-size LED displays, the capacity of China's LED packaging companies will continue to grow in 2017. In addition, it is expected that by 2017, China's LED epitaxial wafer and chip manufacturers will account for more than 50% of global production.

New technology and new applications drive industry growth

LED inside research associate manager Yu Chao believes that in 2017, the LED market competition is still fierce, manufacturers will accelerate to niche markets such as small-pitch display, infrared and ultraviolet LED to gain profits, and the global LED market output will be estimated in 2017. It reached $15.4 billion and grew 4% annually.

"The small-pitch LED display market has become a battleground for military strategists." Chu Yuchao said that because of the small-pitch LED display, the number of LEDs used has increased geometrically, attracting many Chinese LED packaging factories to expand their production capacity to attack this piece. Market pie. In addition, infrared LEDs have unlimited opportunities in security, iris recognition and VR applications.

Another important thing in 2017 is that micro-LED products are expected to come out. In the opinion of experts, micro LEDs are the next generation display technology that has the opportunity to replace OLED panels, and currently attract many brand manufacturers to invest in research and development. Although the current micro-LED distance is still far away from TFT-LCD (liquid crystal) and OLED displays, some manufacturers have planned to launch related applications. LEDinside expects that there will be micro-LED products in 2017.

According to Liu Zhaojun, assistant professor of the School of Joint Engineering at Zhongshan University-Carnegie Mellon University, micro-LEDs are considered to be the ideal next-generation display technology, which will include large and medium-sized outdoor/indoor large screens, desktop/notebook displays. Wearable products such as mobile phones/digital cameras/portable projector screens, smart watches/wristles.

In addition, niche markets such as industrial lighting, automotive LEDs, and LED filament lamps are also highly sought after. LED inside analyst Wang Juxian believes that the global industrial lighting market in 2016 was 2.932 billion US dollars, and grew by more than 15% in the next few years. It is estimated that by 2020, the market size will reach 5.204 billion US dollars.

"At present, the trend of exterior LEDs for automotive LEDs is the most explosive. There are more and more ways to select LEDs for vehicles, such as lights and taillights. Because of its small size and strong brightness, LEDs have improved the design aesthetic of the entire car." Wang Zhongwei, the deputy director of the center, said.

Market price may rise slightly

Due to the rising cost of raw materials, the LED industry has entered a wave of overall price increases. In May of last year, Taiwan's Jingdian opened the wave of price increases for the first wave of chips, and then the mainland's Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics followed the price increase. At present, the wave of price increases has been transmitted to end consumption applications. The industry predicts that the LED industry will maintain its current status in 2017, and the price may even have room for further small increases.

LEDinside brand director Wang Fei believes that since 2016, the LED industry has seen five rounds of price increases. The main factors for the price increase are the increase in the price of raw materials at the supply end and the rapid growth of the segment of the small-pitch LED display at the demand side. .

In his view, the price of domestic LED chips has fallen sharply in the past two years, so the price increase in 2016 is actually a bottoming rebound after the plunge. On the other hand, due to the shortage of some LED products brought by the price increase, it is not a comprehensive reversal of the market, but only a structural shortage.

Since the current price increase is mainly due to the cost factor, there are not many enterprises benefiting from the demand growth. Therefore, the price increase benefit is relatively limited, mainly concentrated in the display supply chain and the production link capable of passing the cost downstream. Most mid-stream and downstream manufacturers still face the unfavorable situation that demand does not cost material but grows rapidly, thus affecting profitability.

In view of the current price game phenomenon of LED leading enterprises led by Sanan and Jingdian in the LED chip market, Wang Fei suggested that in 2017, chip manufacturers should adopt a reasonable strategy to avoid the "prisoner's dilemma" and maintain the industry's entry into the cooperative game mode. In 2016, the price will not fall and rise, and avoid the vicious competition of re-entering the price war. (Source: Economic Information Daily)